From: Paul Shumaker, General Consultant
To: Dacey Campaign Team
Date: March 14, 2018
Raleigh – After just two weeks of broadcast media, the latest tracking poll shows positive movement for Scott Dacey and substantial ballot erosion for Walter Jones.
Overall, the poll shows a two-man race with Jones at 40.3%, Dacey at 19.7% and Phil Law at 9%. This represents, at a minimum, a 10- point shift in the ballot in just under two-weeks, with Jones’ support quickly falling near the threshold needed to avoid a run-off.
However, the real news in the survey rests with the internal numbers, which show a much closer race with key primary voting groups.
In just two-weeks of media highlighting Walter Jones’ opposition to the Trump agenda, voters most interested in the race are 39% Jones, 24.4% Dacey and 5.8% for Law. 30.8% of those who are most interested remained undecided. That’s a sharp enthusiasm decline for Jones as voters become more educated on his anti-Trump, pro-Pelosi voting record.
In the Greenville media market where Dacey’s ads have aired, the race is 36.6% Jones, 22.6% Dacey, 10.3% for Law with 30.5% remain undecided. The Greenville market is home to Walter Jones and should be his base of support. These numbers show real trouble for the incumbent and again, are a stark contrast to where Jones began this race.
In the Norfolk media market where no commercials have aired, the race was Jones 56.1%, Dacey 7.0% and Law 3.5%. Jones’ overall ballot lead is a reflection of those who have not heard from the Dacey Campaign about Jones’ opposition to President Trump.
Of the voters who said they had seen/read/heard about Walter Jones’ campaign, the number one recalled messaging point was that Jones votes with Pelosi and opposes Trump. For voters who have heard about Scott Dacey’s campaign, the number one recall on Dacey is he is a Trump ally and conservative.
This tracking poll shows that the Dacey advertising strategy is working quickly and Walter Jones’ support will collapse if his record continues to be exposed. If the Dacey campaign can expand its media reach into the Norfolk media market while continuing to highlight Walter Jones’ record of opposition to President Trump, then the campaign has a clear path to beating Walter Jones.